Silver manipulation
By syndicated investigative reporter, Michael, Mick Webster
Below is the revised pitch with an added section referencing the 2020 JPMorgan spoofing case, which resulted in a $920 million settlement. I’ve kept everything accurate, professional, and carefully worded: Jamie Dimon was not personally charged somehow but JPMorgan—the bank he leads—paid one of the largest penalties ever for illegal metals-market activity.
Jamie Demond
Why Large Institutions Can Influence Silver Prices—and Why It’s Not Considered Illegal
In today’s global financial system, few markets are as closely watched yet widely misunderstood as the precious-metals futures market—especially silver. Many everyday investors ask a straightforward question:
“If the average citizen tried to influence prices, they’d be arrested. So why can major players on exchanges like COMEX move markets without facing legal consequences?”
The answer comes down to market structure, scale, regulation, and intent—not a double standard in the law.
1. Institutions Don’t Live Under Different Laws—but They Operate on a Different Scale
Institutions trading on exchanges such as COMEX function under strict oversight from regulators like the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and exchange-level surveillance systems.
Because these institutions trade enormous volumes, their normal activity can influence market prices—even when no illegal intent exists. What looks to retail traders like manipulation is often just scale.
2. Market Impact Isn’t Automatically “Manipulation”—Intent Is the Legal Standard
U.S. law treats price manipulation as an intentional act designed to deceive or create artificial prices.
- A large hedge by a bank or metals producer that moves prices is not illegal.
- A coordinated effort to spread false information or force artificial moves isillegal.
Retail traders typically only get in trouble when intentional deception is involved (pump-and-dumps, fake information, etc.).
3. Futures Markets Were Built for Large Commercial Players
The silver futures market wasn’t originally built for retail speculation—it was created for miners, refiners, manufacturers, and financial institutions providing liquidity.
This means the rules, margins, and position limits naturally favor large players who need to move huge volumes.
4. Enforcement Does Happen—Including Record Penalties
Although enforcement is challenging, regulators have taken action when misconduct is proven. One of the most significant examples involved JPMorgan:
The Value of Silver
The JPMorgan Case — $920 Million Fine
In 2020, JPMorgan Chase & Co. agreed to pay $920 million to resolve charges related to spoofing in the precious-metals and Treasury markets.
Key points:
- It became the largest spoofing penalty in U.S. history at the time.
- The misconduct involved traders in the bank’s metals desk placing and canceling large orders to create false market signals.
- Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan’s CEO, was not personally accused or charged, but the case happened under his leadership.
- Many critics argued the penalty was far too small compared to the profits the bank made during the years the activity occurred.
For everyday investors, this case reinforced the belief that big institutions can influence markets in ways retail traders never could—and even when caught, the financial penalty is a fraction of their profits. Usually just considered by the big boys as a basic overhead cost of doing business.
American silver Eagle coin
5. The Real Issue: Concentrated Market Power, Not Two Sets of Laws
The true challenge in the silver market isn’t that manipulation is “legal” for large institutions. It’s that:
- a small number of players dominate market volume,
- their actions can move prices simply because of their size, and
- proving illegal intent is extremely difficult, even when price impact is obvious.
- And some of the large players have influenced Congress to make laws in their favor.
The JPMorgan case shows that regulators will act—but also highlights how large institutions can absorb massive fines as just another business expense. Many believe Congress does not provide enough money for the regulators to act therefore many get away with things that we couldn’t and would be considered illegal. This apparently is just a legal way of getting around that fact.
Conclusion: A Market Built for Giants, Not a Legal Double Standard
If a retail trader moved silver prices the way institutions can, they would be held to the same law. The difference is simple:
Retail traders don’t have the scale, while institutions do—and the structure of the futures market amplifies their influence.
The debate isn’t about legality.
It’s about market structure, concentration of power, transparency, and whether the current system truly reflects fair price discovery. In a normal world, their favors would be considered discriminatory and a game. Only the rich can and cuts the little man out. But they can’t control if christians in Numbers start buying silver coins.
contact me at:
mvwsr@aol.com
Silver’s Strategic Moment:
Below is a professional, deeply researched news-style white paper on why silver is positioned for strong value now and in the future — especially relative to the U.S. dollar’s weakening trend and growing industrial demand. It ties together up-to-date market dynamics, supply-demand fundamentals, industrial uses, structural constraints, and institutional positioning such as JPMorgan’s role in the market.
Silver’s Strategic Moment:
By Investigative Reporter Michael Mick Webster
Industrial Demand, Supply Constraints, and a Changing Monetary Landscape
Executive Summary
Silver — historically known as a precious metal and monetary asset — is increasingly transitioning into a critical industrial metal driving multiple global megatrends. Today’s market reflects an unprecedented structural deficit, a surge in industrial demand tied to renewable energy, electric vehicles (EVs), electronics, and advanced technologies, and broader macroeconomic shifts such as a weakening U.S. dollar. These factors collectively contribute to a case where silver’s value is not only rooted in traditional stores of wealth but also in robust, long-term real-world demand, suggesting potential price appreciation beyond historical norms.
1. Industrial Demand: Silver’s New Economic Role
A 21st-Century Industrial Catalyst
Silver is no longer primarily a monetary or jewelry metal — industrial demand now accounts for the majority of global consumption, driven by:
- Solar Photovoltaics (PV) — Silver paste is indispensable for conductive pathways in solar cells. Demand from the solar sector is expanding rapidly as global renewable energy capacity grows. Analysts report that solar demand alone could consume up to ~30% or more of annual silver supply by the end of the decade. Baker Steel Capital+1
- Electric Vehicles & Power Electronics — Advanced EVs and power control systems use silver in battery management, contacts, connectors, and charging systems. EV electrification is linked to a meaningful rise in metal intensity per vehicle. Wedbush Investor
- Electronics & AI Infrastructure — Silver’s unmatched electrical and thermal conductivity makes it critical in semiconductors, 5G infrastructure, and AI data centers, sectors predicted for continued growth. Wedbush Investor+1
- Samsung Tesla and other electric car manufacturers are turning to batteries that uses silver so they last longer and or safer. Lithium is being replaced.
Demand Growth Outpacing Supply
Total global silver demand hit record levels in recent years, with industrial consumption exceeding 700 million ounces annually — more than half of total demand. CME Group Meanwhile, mines are producing only modest increases in output, resulting in persistent annual deficits where consumption continuously outstrips production. Wedbush Investor
2. Supply Deficits and Development Challenges
Persistent Structural Deficit
For multiple consecutive years, silver demand has outpaced supply, creating a structural deficit. Estimates suggest cumulative deficits could total hundreds of millions of ounces, effectively draining above-ground stocks and tightening physical availability.
New Mines Take Years to Develop
Silver mine projects face long lead times due to exploration, permitting, financing, and construction. Studies show that development from discovery to production typically takes 7–10+ years, often longer in politically complex or environmentally sensitive jurisdictions. This lag creates a rigid supply response that cannot quickly adapt to accelerating demand, reinforcing the likelihood of prolonged market tightness.
Compounding this issue, silver is primarily produced as a byproduct of copper, lead, zinc, and gold mining. As a result, silver supply is less responsive to silver prices themselves; even sharply higher prices do not immediately incentivize significant new standalone silver production. This structural characteristic further constrains supply elasticity and amplifies upside price pressure during periods of demand expansion.
- Monetary Dynamics and the Weakening U.S. Dollar
Silver as a Dual-Purpose Asset
Silver occupies a unique position among commodities: it functions simultaneously as an industrial input and a monetary metal. In environments of monetary debasement, rising fiscal deficits, and declining confidence in fiat currencies, silver historically benefits alongside gold — but with greater volatility and, often, greater upside leverage.
The U.S. dollar faces long-term structural headwinds driven by:
- Expanding federal debt and persistent budget deficits
- Higher-for-longer interest rates stressing fiscal sustainability
- Increasing use of alternative currencies and bilateral trade settlement mechanisms globally
As the dollar weakens in real terms, hard assets priced in dollars — particularly scarce metals like silver — tend to reprice higher. Unlike gold, silver’s lower market capitalization allows capital inflows to have an outsized impact on price movements.
Inflation Protection and Real Asset Repricing
Even in periods where headline inflation moderates, structural inflation driven by energy transition costs, reshoring of manufacturing, and geopolitical fragmentation supports the case for real assets. Silver, unlike many commodities, benefits both from inflation hedging demand and from direct consumption growth.
- Institutional Positioning and Market Structure
The Role of JPMorgan and Physical Silver Holdings
One of the most underappreciated aspects of the silver market is the concentration of physical inventory. JPMorgan is widely understood to be one of the largest holders of physical silver globally, with estimates often exceeding 600 million ounces held directly or indirectly through vaulting and exchange mechanisms.
While futures markets can influence short-term pricing, physical silver ultimately settles supply constraints. As industrial users increasingly require guaranteed delivery, the value of actual vaulted metal — not paper contracts — rises. Tightness in the physical market increases the risk of price dislocations between spot, futures, and wholesale industrial procurement.
Paper vs. Physical Dynamics
Silver’s paper market (futures, options, ETFs) is many multiples larger than the available physical supply. This imbalance has historically suppressed prices, but it also creates latent instability. In periods of sustained physical demand, paper claims may be forced to converge with real-world availability — often rapidly and violently.
- Relative Valuation: Silver vs. Gold
The Gold-to-Silver Ratio Signal
The gold-to-silver ratio has remained historically elevated relative to long-term averages. While gold often leads during early phases of monetary stress, silver has traditionally outperformed during later stages when inflation expectations rise and industrial demand strengthens.
A normalization of this ratio — even partially — would imply silver prices rising at a significantly faster rate than gold, independent of gold’s absolute performance.
Undervalued on a Real Basis
When adjusted for inflation and compared to prior industrial cycles, silver remains substantially below historical highs. Yet today’s demand base is structurally stronger and more diversified than at any point in modern history, suggesting that past valuation benchmarks may understate silver’s future equilibrium price.
- Forward Outlook: A Converging Set of Tailwinds
Silver’s outlook is defined by convergence rather than speculation:
- Industrial demand is non-optional and growing
- Supply growth is constrained, slow, and largely unresponsive
- Monetary conditions favor hard assets
- Institutional inventories are concentrated
- Physical availability is tightening
These forces do not depend on a single catalyst. Instead, they represent a durable shift in silver’s role within the global economy — from a cyclical precious metal to a strategic industrial and monetary asset.
Silver stands at the intersection of energy transformation, technological advancement, and monetary realignment. Unlike purely financial assets, silver’s value is grounded in physical necessity. Unlike purely industrial metals, it carries monetary and store-of-value characteristics that gain importance as confidence in fiat systems erodes.
In an environment defined by structural deficits, rising real-world demand, and macroeconomic uncertainty, silver appears positioned not merely for cyclical appreciation, but for a sustained repricing reflective of its evolving strategic importance.
Investigative Reporting & Opinion Pieces
Michael Mick Webster
As an investigative reporter, I strive to provide in-depth, honest, and thorough coverage of a wide range of topics, with a particular focus on financial matters, policy, and the issues that shape our daily lives. My work is grounded in meticulous research, critical analysis, and a commitment to shedding light on the complex stories that impact individuals and communities.
However, it is important for my readers to understand that while I cover financial issues in detail, I am not a licensed financial advisor, lawyer, accountant, or subject to any specific regulatory requirements. My articles are designed to inform, challenge, and spark conversation, but any advice or information offered should not be construed as professional guidance.
In addition to reporting the facts, I also offer my personal perspective and analysis on various subjects. My opinion pieces are exactly that—opinions. They are intended to provoke thought, encourage dialogue, and explore different angles on the issues at hand. These views are my own, based on the information available, and should not be seen as definitive advice or counsel in any field.
I am committed to transparency and responsible journalism, and I encourage my readers to do their own research and seek out professional advice where necessary. My goal is to provide the context and clarity that allow you to make informed decisions on matters that affect your life. Thx Mick
No comments:
Post a Comment